The United States is on a trajectory towards a significant population decline within the coming decades, according to a recent report from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS). Researchers involved in the study emphasize that this impending demographic shift does not stem from a diminished desire among Americans to have families. On the contrary, the majority of individuals aspire to have a greater number of children than they ultimately do.
According to Stone, Americans have not given up on the idea of having children. Instead, as more individuals delay marriage or opt out of it entirely, many find themselves falling short of the family size they had envisioned.
"What most people want is family," Stone affirmed.
Stone further observed that individuals who enter marriage at an earlier age demonstrate a significantly higher likelihood of achieving their desired family size.
"Conditional on marrying early enough, people almost always hit their fertility desires," he explained. "The main factor shaping undershooting is just not getting married."
Factors Behind Declining Birth Rates
Stone challenged the notion that a rise in medical infertility is the primary cause for the decrease in birth rates, attributing the trend instead to Americans postponing the commencement of their families. Supporting this observation, a 2025 statement from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates a notable increase in the median age for first marriage: 30.8 years for men and 28.4 years for women. This marks a significant change from 1975, when the median ages stood at 23.5 and 21.1, respectively.
"There's not been a dramatic decline in health or reproductive ability. Humans are able to reproduce like we always have, but the choice to delay is exposing more people to the difficulty of age, and it does change their biological options in an adverse way," Stone commented. "It's better to start earlier."
Beyond individual choices, the IFS report also identified "peer culture" as a crucial determinant in fertility patterns. Young Americans who reported having highly supportive friendships expressed a desire for larger families. Specifically, the study found that among respondents under the age of 30, those with more supportive friends indicated a preference for approximately 2.8 children, a notable contrast to the 1.7 children desired by individuals within the least supportive friend groups.
Stone mentioned that while researchers have not yet thoroughly examined whether having married friends who are already parents increases an individual's likelihood of starting a family, he anticipates a probable correlation.
The convergence of delayed family formation and the social influences underscored in the report elucidates why Americans are currently having fewer children than they desire. The IFS posits that this ongoing trend possesses the potential to fundamentally alter the demographic landscape of the nation.
Future Population Projections
Stone detailed the potential trajectory of population changes:
"We kind of do this like long, slow plateau type of thing. But then, in the late 2050s and into the 2060s, decline becomes fairly rapid. And by end of century, we could be looking at nearly a one percentage point population decline every year," he projected.
The IFS report presents two distinct projections for the U.S. population. Should current fertility rates continue their downward trend, the nation's population is expected to reach a maximum of 351 million before commencing its decline in the 2050s. Conversely, if fertility rates stabilize, the population is projected to peak at 366 million, with a decline beginning later, in the 2080s.
Policy Recommendations for Family Support
Stone contended that addressing the trend of declining birth rates would necessitate policymakers elevating family formation to a higher priority. The report outlines several policy recommendations aimed at supporting this goal. These include abolishing "marriage penalties" embedded in tax and welfare programs, increasing the availability of family-friendly housing options, and establishing additional financial incentives designed to encourage Americans to have children. Stone suggested that public discourse should shift from debating whether government should intervene in family life to focusing on how it can enhance its existing interventions.
"I'm not arguing that the government should go from non-intervention to intervention," he clarified. "We're arguing we've got to wake up and be honest, the government is already intervening on family life and it's time to stop intervening against family life."
Stone issued a warning that the ramifications of declining birth rates extend beyond mere population figures. He asserted that robust families are fundamental to the enduring success and stability of the United States.
"Families are the bedrock of a functional society. It is family growth that built this country. It is family growth that will keep this country going. And if we do not have families growing, liberty will not long last," Stone cautioned.
