Former President Donald Trump's considerable influence over the Republican Party and the efficacy of his endorsements in GOP nomination contests are facing a crucial evaluation this Tuesday as Arizona conducts its primary elections.
Trump's backing in several significant races, including a critical swing congressional district, holds the potential to shape the midterm battles for control of the House of Representatives and various governorships.
Key Gubernatorial and Attorney General Races
For the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Trump has thrown his support behind Representative Andy Biggs, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus. Biggs is vying for the opportunity to challenge Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in the general election this November.
Biggs, who also has the endorsement of the political arm of the conservative organization Turning Point USA, is widely regarded as the leading candidate in a primary field that includes long-serving Republican Representative David Schweikert. Other contenders on the ballot are Scott Neely, a concrete pumping contractor making his second consecutive bid for governor, and business owner Ken Miceli.
The victor will advance to the general election to face Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, who previously served as Arizona's Secretary of State. Hobbs secured a narrow victory against then-GOP nominee Kari Lake four years prior and is running unopposed for her party's renomination this cycle.
Further down the ballot, the statewide contest for the Republican nomination for attorney general has become particularly contentious, with state Senate President Warren Petersen and military attorney Rodney Glassman engaging in sharp exchanges. The candidate who prevails will challenge Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes in the general election.
Congressional District Battles
In the race to succeed Representative Schweikert in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, which encompasses the northeastern Phoenix suburbs, Trump has endorsed Jay Feely, a former professional football player for the Arizona Cardinals and a former CBS Sports NFL analyst.
Former state lawmaker Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough are also seeking the GOP nomination in this pivotal swing district.
On the Democratic side, former television anchor Marlene Galán-Woods and former state Representative Amish Shah are once again facing each other in a rematch for their party's congressional nomination. Shah, an emergency room physician, previously won their 2024 primary contest.
Galán-Woods, a former Republican, has garnered significant support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which provides substantial financial backing. She also boasts endorsements from prominent Democrats, including Senator Mark Kelly and former Governor Janet Napolitano.
Rick McCartney, president and CEO of InMedia Company, and Jonathan Treble, founder of WithMe, are also listed on the ballot.
The midterm election in Arizona's 1st District is one of approximately two to three dozen races nationwide that will ultimately determine whether the Republican Party can maintain its slim majority in the House of Representatives.
In Arizona's 5th District, which includes the southeastern Phoenix suburbs, notably parts of Mesa, Trump has endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the contest to replace Representative Biggs. Lamb is competing against construction contractor Daniel Keenan for the GOP nomination.
Keenan has highlighted sexual misconduct and abuse-of-power allegations against Lamb as a central theme of his campaign. However, the Pinal County attorney's office concluded its investigation last month, clearing Lamb of any criminal wrongdoing. Despite the controversy, Trump reaffirmed his endorsement of Lamb earlier this month.
The Republican primary winner in this solidly conservative district is widely expected to be the favorite to succeed Biggs.
Trump's Endorsement Record Elsewhere
The potent influence of the former president's endorsements has been evident in Republican primaries throughout the spring and summer. His preferred candidates have successfully unseated incumbents he targeted in high-stakes contests in Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, and Louisiana.
However, Trump's streak of endorsements in statewide and congressional Republican primaries experienced a break in early June. His last-minute backing of Republican Representative Randy Feenstra of Iowa, in the race to succeed retiring GOP Governor Kim Reynolds, was insufficient to secure victory for the three-term congressman.
Feenstra was narrowly defeated by Zach Lahn, a businessman, farmer, and former political strategist. Lahn had the support of the political wings of MAHA—an acronym for the Make America Healthy Again movement, which aligns with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — and Turning Point USA, the influential conservative organization co-founded by Charlie Kirk.
Trump-backed candidates secured victories in two out of three major races during crucial GOP primary runoff elections in Georgia and Alabama last month. The single defeat occurred against a billionaire businessman who invested over $100 million of his personal wealth into his campaign.
A week later, Anthony Constantino, a businessman and former boxer who was a first-time candidate backed by Trump, triumphed over Robert Smullen. Smullen, a retired Marine Corps colonel and New York assemblyman, had the state party's support in the upstate New York contest to fill the seat of retiring GOP Representative Elise Stefanik.
Meanwhile, in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial runoff, the outcome guaranteed a win for Trump's endorsed candidate. This was because, in addition to endorsing Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette weeks earlier, he also provided a last-minute endorsement to state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who ultimately won the late June showdown in a landslide.
The former president also celebrated a victory in Louisiana, where Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, was ousted while seeking renomination. Trump-backed Representative Julia Letlow ultimately secured the nomination in last month's runoff election.