The influence of former President Donald Trump within the Republican Party, particularly concerning his endorsements in primary contests, faces its latest evaluation this Saturday as Louisiana conducts its primary runoff elections for the U.S. Senate.
Six weeks ago, Senator Bill Cassidy, a Republican incumbent targeted by Trump, was denied a third term. Now, voters in the reliably red Gulf Coast state are set to choose between Representative Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming for the newly open Senate position.
A victory for Letlow in this Republican runoff would mark another success for Trump, aligning with his efforts to populate Congress with legislators who support him during his potential final two years in the White House. Conversely, a win by Fleming would represent the third significant setback for Trump's endorsements in this spring's Republican primary season.
Cassidy's political career concluded after he voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial five years prior.
Letlow, who had Trump's backing even before announcing her candidacy in January, secured 45% of the vote in the initial primary. Fleming garnered approximately 28%, while Cassidy received just under 25%. Since no candidate achieved more than 50% of the vote, Letlow and Fleming advanced to the runoff for the Republican nomination. Cassidy's loss made him the first elected Republican senator to be denied renomination since Indiana Senator Richard Lugar in 2012.
Following Cassidy's defeat, Trump celebrated on social media, stating, "it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!"
In a concession speech to his supporters, Cassidy appeared to criticize Trump, remarking, "When you participate in democracy, sometimes it doesn't turn out the way you want it to. But you don't pout, you don't whine. You don't claim the election was stolen… You don't manufacture some excuse."
Letlow, who also has the support of Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, a prominent ally of Trump, won her current congressional seat in 2021. This occurred after her husband, Luke Letlow, passed away six days post-swearing-in to the U.S. House, following his 2020 election victory for the seat she now occupies. She has consistently emphasized Trump's support throughout her Senate campaign.
Fleming, who served eight years in Congress before taking on a role as a White House deputy chief of staff during Trump’s initial term, has positioned himself as the most conservative contender in the Republican Senate primary.
The eventual Republican nominee is widely considered the leading candidate for the midterm election against either farmer Jamie Davis or Navy veteran Gary Crockett, who are competing in the Democratic Senate runoff.
Recent Tests of Endorsement Power
The significant impact of the former president's endorsements has been evident in Republican primaries over the past two months. His preferred candidates successfully unseated incumbents he had targeted in contests held in Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, and the initial Louisiana primary.
However, Trump's series of successful endorsements in statewide and congressional Republican primaries was interrupted a few weeks ago. His last-minute backing of Republican Representative Randy Feenstra of Iowa in the contest to succeed retiring Governor Kim Reynolds was insufficient to secure a victory for the three-term congressman.
Feenstra was narrowly defeated by Zach Lahn, a businessman, farmer, and former political strategist. Lahn had the support of the political factions associated with MAHA—an acronym for the Make America Healthy Again movement, which aligns with Trump’s Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—and Turning Point USA, the influential conservative organization co-founded by the late Charlie Kirk.
The former president regained momentum three weeks ago in South Carolina. There, Trump-backed Lieutenant Governor Pam Evette secured the top position in the Republican gubernatorial primary, and long-time Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham won a majority of the votes in the Republican Senate primary, thereby avoiding a runoff election.
Graham, who received Trump's endorsement, faced challenges from five primary opponents. Among them was conservative businessman Mark Lynch, who criticized the senator for his stance on the war in Iran. Lynch garnered support from some leaders within the MAGA movement who have expressed critical views of the former president.
Two weeks ago, candidates endorsed by Trump triumphed in two out of three major races across Georgia and Alabama. The sole defeat occurred against a billionaire businessman who invested over $100 million of his personal wealth into his campaign.
In Alabama's staunchly Republican Senate runoff, Representative Barry Moore, a member of the House Freedom Caucus and a long-standing supporter endorsed by Trump, comfortably defeated his opponent Jared Hudson, a former Navy SEAL sniper who had the backing of some prominent conservative figures.
In battleground Georgia's Republican Senate runoff, a last-minute endorsement from Trump helped propel Representative Mike Collins, a strong proponent of the MAGA agenda, to victory over former college football coach Derek Dooley, who was supported by the popular conservative Governor Brian Kemp.
Collins is set to face Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in the general election, a contest that is among a handful expected to determine whether the Republican Party maintains its narrow majority in the chamber during the midterms.
However, in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial runoff, the candidate endorsed by Trump, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones—who also received Governor Kemp's backing the previous weekend—was defeated by billionaire businessman Rick Jackson, who campaigned as an outsider.
On Tuesday, Anthony Constantino, a businessman and former boxer making his first run for office, secured a victory in an upstate New York race. Constantino, backed by Trump, defeated Robert Smullen, a retired Marine Corps colonel and New York assemblyman who had the state party's support, in the contest to succeed retiring Republican Representative Elise Stefanik.
Meanwhile, in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial runoff, the former president faced a no-lose scenario.
This was because, in addition to endorsing Evette, he also provided a last-minute endorsement to state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who ultimately won the contest by a significant margin.
