Democratic strategists are expressing apprehension that the aspirations of Senate candidate James Talarico to secure a victory for Democrats in Texas could be undermined by a significant weakness: a perceived lack of engagement among Black voters in the state, who reportedly feel a sense of "betrayal" by the party.
Ashley Etienne, an experienced Democratic strategist who previously advised President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris, indicated that even with a history of contentious remarks, Talarico appears "incredibly well positioned" to become the first Democrat in many decades to win a Senate seat in Texas. Nevertheless, she pinpointed a critical weakness, observing that Black voters are "feeling like they were betrayed" due to "what happened to Jasmine Crockett."
Earlier this year, Talarico, a current Texas state legislator and Presbyterian seminarian, secured the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, prevailing over Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a Black Democrat representing Texas.
Etienne elaborated that in the aftermath of Crockett's primary defeat, "some voters, Black women in particular, are feeling as though the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates want our labor, but not our leadership." She cited "Kamala Harris' loss and Jasmine Crockett's loss" as the "two biggest examples" of this sentiment.
Talarico has previously drawn considerable criticism for controversial statements, including declaring he "hates Christianity," referring to God as "nonbinary," and claiming there are six sexes. While Etienne suggested these past remarks could be addressed, she maintained that the sense of "betrayal" among Black voters poses a more serious threat to his Senate aspirations.
Etienne, a native Texan, has an extensive background, having served as a senior advisor to former President Joe Biden, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and various members of Congress from Texas. She currently leads the communications firm Etienne & Saint.
She recalled an opinion piece she co-authored for the Houston Chronicle, where a Black female voter was quoted expressing, "We as Black women give 92 percent of our vote to the Democratic Party, and we get nothing out of the deal."
"That's one example of what I think is a larger sentiment across Black women," Etienne clarified.
According to Etienne, this represents an "alarm warning for Talarico."
Mobilizing the Untapped Base
Etienne underscored the gravity of this concern, noting that roughly 1.1 million registered Black voters in Texas do not cast ballots. For Talarico to achieve a rare Democratic victory in the historically Republican state, she emphasized the necessity of engaging this dormant voter segment, identifying Black women as crucial to this effort.
When discussing the motivation of the Democratic base, Etienne asserted that "Black women aren't just another constituency."
"We are a force multiplier effect when it comes to Black voters," she stated. "We have the ability to bring the entire community to – and we have proven that we do this every cycle after cycle – bring the entire community to the polls."
She further clarified that "if the mood of Black women is low, then you lose an opportunity … to really reach and mobilize and engage and energize the rest of the Black community."
"That's the nut he's going to have to crack," Etienne concluded.
Navigating Campaign Dynamics
Political analyst Damon Jones offered a complementary perspective, observing, "There's rhetoric that's being turned up that she has to come and support him, and a lot of that is coming from people that support him." He explained that this translates into "people basically telling this accomplished, decorated, Black female member of Congress what she ought to do." Jones added that such demands only "stoke flames and fires for her supporters, who are saying, ‘She really doesn't have to do anything. You won, you're the nominee, you come earn our vote, she doesn't have to help you do that.’"
Jones further cautioned that while "there are millions of black Texans out there ready for the taking, ready to support the campaign," this potential support faces "an erosion" with each passing day.
Regarding Talarico's controversial comments, Jones suggested they would likely have minimal influence on the Black electorate in Texas, particularly "considering the alternative" is Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
"There will be a lot of energy and effort to weaponize those types of statements," Jones acknowledged. "But I truly don't think that it's going to have a huge impact."
"Black Texans that show up in November are not voting for Ken Paxton," Jones asserted. He clarified that the primary hurdle lies in "creating the enthusiasm to get enough of them to go and vote for him."
Jones also pointed out that Talarico has "himself admitted that he cannot win the state without Black voters." He concluded by stating, "It's not a persuasion game, it's an enthusiasm game."
