Graham Platner, the populist Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine, is currently locked in a virtual tie with the long-serving Republican Senator Susan Collins, according to a recently released poll.
The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll, published Monday, indicates Platner with 49% support among likely voters, while Senator Collins stands at 47%. Three percent of respondents were either undecided or declined to answer. Platner’s narrow two-point lead falls within the survey’s margin of error, signifying that the contest is effectively deadlocked.
Senator Collins, a Republican known for her moderate stance and occasional votes against former President Donald Trump’s agenda, is seeking her sixth six-year term in the upper chamber of Congress.
This high-stakes and anticipated expensive election is one of several critical races nationwide that will determine whether Republicans retain their slim Senate majority in the upcoming November midterm elections. The Republican party currently holds a 53-47 advantage in the chamber, making the potential flip of this left-leaning Maine seat a crucial component of the Democratic strategy to regain control.
Platner's Primary Triumph Amidst Scrutiny
Platner, an acclaimed military combat veteran and oyster farmer, has garnered endorsements from prominent progressive figures such as Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as Representative Ro Khanna of California. Earlier this month, he comfortably secured the Democratic Senate primary nomination against two less-known challengers.
His primary victory also saw him surpass two-term Democratic Governor Janet Mills. Governor Mills, who had received backing from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Senate Democrats' campaign arm, suspended her own Senate bid in the spring after significantly lagging behind Platner in both fundraising and polling, though her name remained on the ballot.
Platner’s win occurred during one of the most challenging periods of his campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Over the past few months, he has been on the defensive regarding a series of controversies. These included inflammatory comments made on Reddit, a widely reported (and now covered-up) chest tattoo that bore a resemblance to a Nazi symbol, recent reports alleging he exchanged sexually explicit messages with multiple women while married, and accusations from former partners detailing a history of rape fantasies, heavy alcohol consumption, and violent episodes. Platner has unequivocally denied the allegations of violence.
The day before the primary election, a former high-ranking staffer from Platner's campaign authored an article stating that Platner “is not someone who would be good for Maine or for the country.”
Despite the escalating controversies drawing considerable attention and prompting some national Democrats to question Platner’s viability, they did not prevent him from riding a populist surge to secure the nomination. More than nine out of ten Platner supporters surveyed in the recent poll indicated they were aware of the controversies but based their vote on his policy positions.
Candidate Responses and Voter Perceptions
Platner has openly discussed his battle with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), stemming from three deployments in Iraq with the Marines and one tour in Afghanistan with the Army National Guard. He apologized for his controversial Reddit posts after they gained media attention last fall, shortly after he launched his Senate campaign.
Regarding the tattoo, Platner stated he acquired the skull and crossbones design in 2007 while drinking with fellow Marines stationed in Croatia. He explained that he covered up the tattoo with a new design last year after realizing its resemblance to a Nazi symbol. However, allegations from a former girlfriend have raised questions about his timeline regarding when he became aware of the tattoo's controversial symbolism.
In his primary night victory speech, Platner emphasized personal growth and change.
“If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change,” Platner told the gathered crowd. “And the reason I believe that is because I have lived it. And the reason that I have lived it is because of my wife.”
The new poll, conducted between June 19 and 26, suggests Platner faces challenges in fully consolidating support among voters who desire a Democratic majority in Congress.
Fifty-four percent of respondents expressed a desire for Democrats to win back the Senate majority in the midterms, a figure five points higher than the 49% currently supporting Platner. Furthermore, Senator Collins is attracting support from 10% of voters who nonetheless prefer Democratic control of the Senate.
The survey also indicates that a majority of Maine voters question Platner’s “good character” or “right kind of moral values,” with nearly half perceiving him as too extreme.
In contrast, over six out of ten respondents affirm Collins possesses “good character” and the “right kind of moral values,” and only a third believe she is too extreme for Maine. Meanwhile, some Democratic respondents voiced concerns that the 41-year-old Platner, who has never held elected office, might be “too inexperienced.”
Challenges and Historical Context for Collins
However, the poll also presents warning signs for Senator Collins. A majority of those surveyed believe she would be overly supportive of former President Trump, and even some of her own constituents express concern that the 73-year-old senator may be too old to serve effectively.
Senator Collins voted to convict former President Trump during his second impeachment trial in 2021, shortly after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Additionally, early last year, she opposed the confirmation of then-nominee Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary.
Despite these instances, she is also widely remembered for her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, a decision that ultimately contributed to the court's conservative majority overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling, which had previously established a nationwide right to abortion.
Defeating Senator Collins is historically a difficult task. Six years ago, despite public opinion polls suggesting she was headed for defeat, Collins defied expectations and secured re-election by besting then-Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon by a nine-point margin.
While this latest survey indicates Platner holds a slight edge, it is not the only recent poll to do so; a Pine Tree Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire late last month suggested Platner held a more substantial nine-point lead.
Highlighting the dynamics of the race, Platner's campaign shared a message on social media:
“Susan Collins has the billionaires. The lobbyists. The Super PACs. The Washington establishment. But we have Maine.”