The electoral contest for Iowa's U.S. Senate seat in 2026, which will determine the successor to retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, is shaping up to be one of the most competitive nationwide. Senator Ernst, who made history as the first woman to represent the Hawkeye State in the Senate, secured her last victory by 6.5 percentage points in 2020. In the same year, former President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 8 points, a margin that expanded to 13 points in 2024.
Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since Tom Harkin's victory nearly two decades ago in 2008. Current early polling data suggests a tight race, with Democratic contender Josh Turek holding a four-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson, 50% to 46%. This lead, however, falls within the survey's margin of error.
Senate Race Dynamics and Voter Sentiment
Among voters who identify as highly motivated to participate in the election, Turek's lead expands to 15 points. This significant gap is largely attributed to a greater sense of enthusiasm among Democrats, with 67% indicating they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 53% of Republicans.
Regarding public perception, Hinson's net favorability rating registers at negative seven points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable), though it is marginally better than Trump's. In contrast, Turek enjoys a much more positive standing with a net favorability of 18 points (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Sixteen percent of respondents expressed no opinion on Turek, while 9% were undecided about Hinson.
In the direct matchup, Turek garners strong support from several key demographics, including women with a college degree (65%), independent voters (59%), urban residents (59%), and individuals under 30 years old (55%).
Conversely, Hinson's base of support is particularly strong among White evangelical Christians (67%), men aged 45 and above (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Her support is most pronounced among Republicans identifying with the MAGA movement, who are 23 points more likely to back her than other GOP voters (95% versus 72%).
Overall, a greater proportion of Democrats (96%) express support for Turek compared to the percentage of Republicans (88%) backing Hinson, an eight-point difference. Furthermore, Turek's supporters demonstrate higher certainty in their choice, with 82% indicating they are certain to support him in November, compared to 72% of Hinson's supporters. Nearly three in ten Hinson backers acknowledged they might change their minds.
More of Hinson's supporters primarily vote for her rather than against her opponent (77%), while a smaller percentage of Turek's supporters (60%) express the same sentiment about their candidate.
Former President Trump endorsed Hinson last September, and voters remain divided on her association with him. Half of the respondents (50%) expressed extreme or very strong concern about her perceived closeness to Trump, while 48% reported little to no concern.
Fewer voters are apprehensive about Turek's policy positions being overly liberal; 37% expressed concern, while 59% were unconcerned.
Key Voter Concerns and Gubernatorial Race Outlook
Financial stability is a significant concern for Iowans. A recent survey revealed that 42% of residents feel they are falling behind financially, a substantial increase from 31% in a previous 2024 assessment. This figure is nearly four times higher than the 11% who believe they are getting ahead, with 46% reporting they are holding steady.
When asked about the most crucial issue influencing their Senate vote, four in ten Iowans (39%) cited inflation. Other issues lagged considerably: healthcare (14%), immigration and border security (13%), and political divisions (13%). Abortion (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), Iran (4%), and crime (2%) were identified as less critical factors.
Turek holds an advantage among voters prioritizing inflation (+15 points), healthcare (+53 points), and political divisions (+20 points). Hinson, however, demonstrates an overwhelming 88-point lead on the issue of immigration.
In parallel, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, like Senator Ernst, has chosen not to seek a third term. The latest survey indicates a nine-point lead for Democratic nominee Rob Sand over Republican challenger Zach Lahn in the race to succeed Reynolds.
Sand benefits from some cross-party support, with 11% of Hinson's supporters favoring him for governor, compared to 7% of Turek's supporters backing Lahn. Sand's supporters also show higher certainty in their choice, with 81% stating they are certain of their vote, versus 74% for Lahn's backers.
Sand enjoys a positive personal rating of +21 points (54% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Lahn's ratings are slightly negative at minus three points (38% favorable, 41% unfavorable), with 20% of voters having no opinion on him.