Following a last-minute endorsement from former President Trump in the June Republican primary runoff, the Republican challenger secured his party's nomination, defeating an opponent who had the backing of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump carried Georgia by approximately two percentage points, a shift from his narrow loss in 2020 and a smaller margin than his more than five-point victory in 2016.
Candidate Support Bases Emerge
The incumbent Democrat garners significant backing from several key demographic groups. This includes 87% support from Black voters, 68% from individuals under 30, 68% from independents, 66% from moderates, and 66% from women under the age of 45. Among the 82% of Georgia voters who report high motivation to participate in the election, the Democratic incumbent holds an 11-point lead, with 55% to the Republican challenger's 44%.
Conversely, the Republican challenger's strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (79%), White men without a college degree (65%), and rural voters (55%). He also finds favor among about half of households that own guns (53%) and military veterans (50%).
Party Loyalty and Voter Sentiment
The Democratic incumbent benefits from more robust party loyalty, with nearly all Democrats (96%) expressing support for him. Furthermore, over eight in ten of his supporters state their vote is primarily for him, rather than against his Republican opponent.
For the Republican challenger, nine in ten Republicans (89%) support him. However, a smaller proportion—56% of his supporters—indicate their vote is for him, while 44% report their primary motivation is voting against the Democratic incumbent.
Intriguingly, almost a quarter of Republicans who do not identify with the "Make America Great Again" movement intend to support the Democrat, a stark contrast to just 4% among MAGA adherents.
Voter enthusiasm levels appear largely similar for both candidates. Approximately eight in ten supporters of the Democratic incumbent (81%) are certain of their vote and are extremely or very motivated to cast a ballot. Among the Republican challenger's supporters, 78% are certain to back him, and 84% express high motivation to vote.
Public Perception and Key Voter Issues
A significant majority of voters, nearly six in ten (58%), hold a favorable view of the Democratic incumbent. This figure is considerably higher than the favorability ratings for the Republican challenger (44%) and former President Trump (42%). Trump's favorable rating has seen a five-point decline from 47% in a previous Georgia survey.
Georgians are also more likely, by six percentage points, to express extreme or very high concern that the Republican challenger is too closely aligned with former President Trump (53%), compared to the 47% who are concerned that the Democratic incumbent is too liberal.
Inflation stands out as the predominant concern for voters, with 40% identifying it as the most critical issue influencing their Senate vote. Healthcare ranks as a distant second at 13%, followed by political divisions (11%), immigration (11%), and jobs and unemployment (11%). Fewer voters cited the Iran conflict (5%), crime (5%), or abortion (3%) as their top concern.
The Democratic incumbent holds substantial leads among voters most concerned with inflation (+21 points), healthcare (+40 points), and political divisions (+18 points). In contrast, the Republican challenger maintains a significant advantage among those whose primary focus is immigration (+45 points).
"As Brooklyn Dodgers’ announcer Red Barber used to say, [the Democratic incumbent] is ‘sitting in the Catbird seat’," stated Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the survey alongside Democrat Chris Anderson. Shaw added, "My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but [the Republican challenger] has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians."
Economic Outlook and Gubernatorial Race
Despite widespread concerns about inflation, half of the surveyed voters (51%) believe their personal finances are holding steady. Meanwhile, 35% report falling behind financially, and only 14% feel they are getting ahead.
In Georgia's gubernatorial contest, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms currently holds a five-point lead, with 52% support compared to 47% for Republican Rick Jackson. This difference falls within the poll's margin of error.
The results also reveal a degree of ticket splitting among voters. Eleven percent of the Democratic Senate incumbent's supporters cross party lines to back Jackson for governor, while five percent of the Republican Senate challenger's supporters endorse Lance Bottoms.
Supporters of Lance Bottoms express greater certainty in their vote than those backing Jackson (80% versus 75%). Both gubernatorial candidates maintain net-positive personal favorability ratings. Lance Bottoms is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 38%, while Jackson's ratings are 43% favorable and 38% unfavorable. Approximately one in ten voters indicated they had not heard of either gubernatorial candidate.
